Expected Long-Range Forecast 2012-2013

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Feature: Expected Long-Range Forecast 2012-2013

Brittni Cebulak 

            Fall has been lingering in the air for the past few weeks, made evident by the distinct chill in both the early morning air as well as the high school building. With that in mind, one is forced to wonder what the winter season might have in store for society within the coming months.

            The Farmer’s Almanac is an annual “North American periodical” that has been continually published since 1818 by the Almanac Publishing Company ofLewiston,Maine. This composition is famous for its yearly long-range weather predictions and has recently published the online analyses of the 2012-2013 winter, spring, and summer forecasts.

            Last year’s winter season was not much to brag about for mid-Missouri and was relatively quiet compared to the snow and ice storms dominated by previous years. So should we expect the same this year? According to the Farmer’s Almanac, which has an 80% accuracy rate, some parts of the country are expected to have normal or “above normal” temperatures, while others are anticipated to be colder and experience more snowfall and other precipitation.

            The temperatures are expected to be much colder this year “all the way west from the East Coast to the Dakotas and down to Texas.” Moreover, the temperatures of every place west of this point, except for parts of the Desert Southwest, are expected to be warmer than last winter. In addition, snowfall will be “below normal” near the Great Salt Lake and in the areas fromEl Paso, toDetroit, and toVirginia Beach. In addition, the snowfall in places that usually have a lot of snow may be below normal.

            Summer is quite out of our reach, but the Farmer’s Almanac has also made their predictions for the spring and summer months along with their winter forecast. Whether or not they will be accurate is uncertain, but we will know within a matter of a few months.

          Interestingly, areas that have suffered from drought during summer 2012 “should receive enough winter precipitation to bring improvement.” In fact, the 2013 spring and summer seasons “will be much rainier than normal inFlorida, easing its drought.” Conversely, “drier-than-normal” weather will continue to dominate much ofGeorgia. In addition, summer temperatures are expected to be “hotter than normal” along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, as well as in the Ohio River Valley, but it is expected to be “cooler than normal elsewhere.” Additionally, the Farmer’s Almanac reports that we should anticipate less tornadoes than we have had in the past few years; however, “be prepared for hurricanes to threaten first the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in June and then primarily in the Southeast (especially Florida) through the remainder of the hurricane season.” 

          The Farmer’s Almanac predictions seem rather broad when one tries to decipher what weather to expect inMissouri. However, based on the information released thus far, one should expect “colder than normal” temperatures inMissouri, and maybe even more significant amounts of snowfall than that experienced last year. Still, in the end, the prediction varies from the way it is interpreted from one person to the next. For example, students love snow because of school cancellations; therefore, it is in our nature to think every iota of winter perception will lead to a blizzard. Conversely, what we think will happen, and what will actually happen are nearly always two different situations, and, at the end of the day, we just have to sit back, let nature take its course, and deal with whatever repercussions that it may bring whenever the calamity arises.

http://www.almanac.com/content/long-range-winter-weather-forecast-2012-2013-season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmer%27s_almanac